Day 1–3 (Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2026): Within 48 hours of coordinated U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, war-risk premiums surged fivefold. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz “closed” and threatened to strike any vessel attempting passage. At least seven major P&I Clubs — including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club — issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war-risk coverage across the Gulf. Marsh Risk reported that rates had already jumped from 0.25% to 1.25% of vessel value within the first 48 hours. For a $100M tanker, that’s a voyage cost that went from roughly $250,000 to over $1.25 million — overnight.
By Week 1 (Mar 6): Reuters reported surges exceeding 1,000%. Marsh’s marine hull UK war leader Dylan Mortimer confirmed that rates were generally ranging from 1% to 1.5% of hull value, with further variation depending on whether a vessel was positioned east or west of the Hormuz chokepoint. Over 150 vessels, including oil and LNG tankers, had anchored or diverted, creating immediate operational paralysis.
By Week 2 (Mar 10): Lloyd’s List reported that Gulf war-risk premiums were topping double-digit millions of dollars per trip for high-value vessels. For context, the typical rate during the 1980s Tanker War — when Iraq attacked 283 vessels and Iran attacked 168 over eight years — was approximately 5%. The 2026 crisis had blown past that precedent in under two weeks.
By Week 3 (Mar 20): Commercial Risk Online confirmed that war-risk rates for ships in Gulf waters had reached 3.5% to 7.5% of hull value per voyage, with some high-risk vessels facing quotes at 10% or more. The Financial Times reported that in some cases premiums had increased twelvefold from pre-crisis rates. By this point, 23 vessels had been attacked, involving drones, missiles, mines, and direct naval exchanges — contributing to what insurers were calling an unprecedented “fear factor.”
